My Hookah, the portable, modern, HoboHookah

T-Notes

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

On finance: Stocks or something else?

Question: "Do you have stock? I have shares of stock from my grandparents and I'm free to buy and sell or whatever as I please. ...but i was thinking of expanding my financial knowledge and at least figure out what to look for/what to do if i ever decide to touch it. Any resources or tips would be helpful. I dont' even know if you know about this stuff...but i feel like you do. "


Answer: "This is a tough question. I don't invest currently, but do know a few things.

First, having all investments in one stock is bad. Ideally you would hold at least 30-60 stocks, to diversify. I won't get technical on you, but basically diversifying maximizes your end return (good thing). (Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversification_(finance))

The easiest way to diversify is with futures contracts. Think of these as mutual funds basically. If you buy a S&P futures contract its like buying a small slice of 500 of the largest US companies. So diversification is built in.  They are also cheaper to trade (so if you want to buy or sell them, they are cheaper than stocks) and you dont have to pay any management fee (like with Mutual Funds).

Now, you are young and its very likely that over the next 40 years the S&P will go up. So its not a bad idea to invest everything in S&P futures. (Advanced tip: If you were really feeling hot about the economy you could take out a line of credit using your current holdings as collateral and buy even more futures, thus leveraging your risk and return on the portfolio, but thats for another day...) 

But if you feel risk averse (ie you think the economy won't do well over the next 40 years) you can put some (or all) of your money in long term US treasuries (us gov bonds) (or rather which ever government security gives you the best return, usually its the 30yr bonds, but not always).

According to my old finance professor, if you aren't an investing genius, than the only securities you should invest in are S&P futures and government bonds.  This isn't completely black and white though.  There are other good index futures out there in foreign markets as well, if you feel more aggressive about other markets. 

This is a good place to start. Even if you move 50 percent into S&P futures you will be doing better, because you are diversified.

After that, you can get cheeky down the road and move money between futures and gov bonds depending on how you feel about the economy. You can also start moving a little money to stocks you like, but for now just get some futures.

The last thing I will say: if your broker (whoever you deal with to manage your portfolio for you) tells you to invest in a "managed fund" don't do it! Only invest in passive things (like futures) the returns are better because if its managed the manager takes a chunk and this almost never gives a good return. (Ref: http://www.fool.com/school/mutualfunds/performance/record.htm)

Hope this helps! Take it with a grain of salt, but don't get sucked into anything fancy!"

Friday, December 24, 2010

Setting up Readynas Ultra with Dropbox

So, this is a little different than my typical entries, but I feel I owe it to the open source community that has helped me through so many Linux related issues.  This is the How-To on getting Dropbox to work on a Netgear Readynas Ultra (this guide should work with the Pro, NVX or any other x86 based Readynas).

Step 1) Prep
- Load in your hard drives.
- Let the Readynas format the drives (takes a couple hours).  I used X-Raid 2, seems like the way to go.
- Go through setup: Make note of the IP address you select (probably want to use static IPs, write it down).  Going forward, Ill refer to the readynas as being on IP 192.168.x.x

Step 2) Getting SSH Locked and Loaded
- Download the Bin for ToggleSSH (http://www.readynas.com/download/addons/x86/4.2/EnableRootSSH_1.0-x86.bin)
- Upload the Bin in //readynas/admin > System > Update > Local tab.  It will verify, then install.
- Boom! You have SSH.  Now some Linux CLI.

Step 3) Getting into the Readynas Command Line
- Open up a Terminal (preferably Linux, or Mac, but Windows should work too). Note: Below are the Linux commands, may be different than other OSs
- Enter command: $ sudo ssh 192.168.x.x  Enter in your sudo password (local machine) and then it will ask for your root password on the Readynas.  The root password is most likely netgear1 (for some reason, the su password is the t-1 password for admin access on your Readynas.  So, the original password is netgear1 then you changed it in the setup to 12345.  12345 is your admin password, but SSH still uses netgear1 as the root password (further more if you change your password again to 54321 than the SSH password will be 12345.  Weird, but thats how it is on my Readynas Ultra despite what the documentation says that the Admin and Root passwords are the same).
- NOTE:  SSH may give you some jive.  Just click yes.  If you ever have to reset you readynas and you try logging into SSH again, it will give you a security error.  Check this article out on how to get through the RSA check: http://linuxcommando.blogspot.com/2008/10/how-to-disable-ssh-host-key-checking.html

Step 4) You are in!
- Now, its time to get Dropbox cooking here is the step by step (Source: http://forums.dropbox.com/topic.php?id=9454)
- $ useradd -d /c/dropbox -m dropbox
- $ su - dropbox -c "wget http://www.dropbox.com/download?plat=lnx.x86"
NOTE: Make sure that the file downloaded ends in tar.gz.  If not, just enter the command again, it should download

- $ su - dropbox -c "tar zxvf dropbox-lnx.x86-1.0.10.tar.gz"
NOTE: Change dropbox.lnx.x86-1.0.10.tar.gz to whatever file downloaded in the step above.  This is important for when a new version of dropbox comes out.
- $ su - dropbox -c "env LD_LIBRARY_PATH=/lib64:/lib:/usr/lib:/usr/local/lib .dropbox-dist/dropboxd &"

- Now a link should be popping up (may need to wait a minute).  Cut and paste it into the browser on the local machine.  Enter your credentials for dropbox, and now your readynas will be linked.
Now its a good idea to see if everything is running: First try:
-  $ ps auwx |grep dropbox
You should see two entries, one that says grep and the other (top one) should be dropboxd.  If not, trying running the last command above again.  Also you can use this command:
- $ df -k
Run this command a couple times, just make sure that your primary drive is increasing in size.


Okay, you are all set.  /c/dropbox/Dropbox should now be increasing in size.  You can try to run a script to automate the start process (Here: http://forums.dropbox.com/topic.php?id=9454) I just chose to run $ su - dropbox -c "env LD_LIBRARY_PATH=/lib64:/lib:/usr/lib:/usr/local/lib .dropbox-dist/dropboxd &" every time I restart the machine (which is rare anyways).


Step 5) Accessing your Dropbox on the network
Now, one annoying thing with this is that the /c/dropbox/Dropbox isn't really a standard share.  So if you want to access it it will ask you for credentials (admin:12345 if you use the example above).  Which is fine, especially if you are fine with the name of the folder being Dropbox.


So everything is now working.  There is one final bonus step:


Bonus) Changing the Dropbox Directory and making Dropbox a standard Readynas Share.
So this is a cheater step for me.  If you are savvy, you can install a C library, then a Python library and then download a python script to run that will allow you to change the directory to one of the Shares on the readynas (its all here: http://wiki.dropbox.com/TipsAndTricks/TextBasedLinuxInstall)

But I have a cheater way: Modify the fstab and get the /c/dropbox/Dropbox folder to mount as a network share.
- Suppose you want dropbox to be in a share on the Readynas called Business.  SSH into your Readynas (same as above) then follow these steps:
- $ sudo vi /etc/fstab
(Opens the VIM based editor, full list of commands here: http://www.tuxfiles.org/linuxhelp/vimcheat.html)
NOTE: One newbie thing to note with vim is that you will want to hit the "insert key" when ever you want edit a line of the file and hit the ESC key when you want to save or quit.
- Enter the line (use arrow keys to get on a line with a line entry, hit insert, hit enter, and you should have a fresh line): //192.168.x.x/c/dropbox/Dropbox /c/Business cifs default,username=admin,password=12345,workgroup=WORKGROUP 0 0
NOTE: Of course change 12345 and workgroup to your settings.  Capitalization is important.  Check and double check the line, while I didn't brick my computer on this step, it is very possible to do so.
- To save and exit from vim do exactly this (dont think about it): Hit ESC > :wq > ENTER
- $ mount -a

If you don't see any errors after you hit mount -a, you should be all good.  If you see some errors, consult the internet and correct.  From now on, your dropbox folder will be replicated in your Business share.  A few more notes:
- Positive: This is easy (way easier than loading a C, python library, and a script).
- Positive: Very reliable and robust (this will work even if you update dropbox, etc)
- Negative: I believe you are making actually two copies on the drives, not the big of a deal for 2gigs of data, but if you have a 50gig dropbox account, than this method probably wont make sense.
- Negative: You are using modest amounts of intranet bandwidth to update the network folder.  I've tweaked this and actually have the readynas connect to the Dropbox folder via the second Ethernet port (the readynas ultra has two ethernet ports in the back).  Not sure if this makes a difference, but it does in my mind.

Hope this helps some newbie like me out.  Leave questions in the comments.


Setting up Readynas Ultra with Dropbox

So, this is a little different than my typical entries, but I feel I owe it to the open source community that has helped me through so many Linux related issues.  This is the How-To on getting Dropbox to work on a Netgear Readynas Ultra (this guide should work with the Pro, NVX or any other x86 based Readynas).

Step 1) Prep
- Load in your hard drives.
- Let the Readynas format the drives (takes a couple hours).  I used X-Raid 2, seems like the way to go.
- Go through setup: Make note of the IP address you select (probably want to use static IPs, write it down).  Going forward, Ill refer to the readynas as being on IP 192.168.x.x

Step 2) Getting SSH Locked and Loaded
- Download the Bin for ToggleSSH (http://www.readynas.com/download/addons/x86/4.2/EnableRootSSH_1.0-x86.bin)
- Upload the Bin in //readynas/admin > System > Update > Local tab.  It will verify, then install.
- Boom! You have SSH.  Now some Linux CLI.

Step 3) Getting into the Readynas Command Line
- Open up a Terminal (preferably Linux, or Mac, but Windows should work too). Note: Below are the Linux commands, may be different than other OSs
- Enter command: $ sudo ssh 192.168.x.x  Enter in your sudo password (local machine) and then it will ask for your root password on the Readynas.  The root password is most likely netgear1 (for some reason, the su password is the t-1 password for admin access on your Readynas.  So, the original password is netgear1 then you changed it in the setup to 12345.  12345 is your admin password, but SSH still uses netgear1 as the root password (further more if you change your password again to 54321 than the SSH password will be 12345.  Weird, but thats how it is on my Readynas Ultra despite what the documentation says that the Admin and Root passwords are the same).
- NOTE:  SSH may give you some jive.  Just click yes.  If you ever have to reset you readynas and you try logging into SSH again, it will give you a security error.  Check this article out on how to get through the RSA check: http://linuxcommando.blogspot.com/2008/10/how-to-disable-ssh-host-key-checking.html

Step 4) You are in!
- Now, its time to get Dropbox cooking here is the step by step (Source: http://forums.dropbox.com/topic.php?id=9454)
- $ useradd -d /c/dropbox -m dropbox
- $ su - dropbox -c "wget http://www.dropbox.com/download?plat=lnx.x86"
NOTE: Make sure that the file downloaded ends in tar.gz.  If not, just enter the command again, it should download

- $ su - dropbox -c "tar zxvf dropbox-lnx.x86-1.0.10.tar.gz"
NOTE: Change dropbox.lnx.x86-1.0.10.tar.gz to whatever file downloaded in the step above.  This is important for when a new version of dropbox comes out.
- $ su - dropbox -c "env LD_LIBRARY_PATH=/lib64:/lib:/usr/lib:/usr/local/lib .dropbox-dist/dropboxd &"

- Now a link should be popping up (may need to wait a minute).  Cut and paste it into the browser on the local machine.  Enter your credentials for dropbox, and now your readynas will be linked.
Now its a good idea to see if everything is running: First try:
-  $ ps auwx |grep dropbox
You should see two entries, one that says grep and the other (top one) should be dropboxd.  If not, trying running the last command above again.  Also you can use this command:
- $ df -k
Run this command a couple times, just make sure that your primary drive is increasing in size.


Okay, you are all set.  /c/dropbox/Dropbox should now be increasing in size.  You can try to run a script to automate the start process (Here: http://forums.dropbox.com/topic.php?id=9454) I just chose to run $ su - dropbox -c "env LD_LIBRARY_PATH=/lib64:/lib:/usr/lib:/usr/local/lib .dropbox-dist/dropboxd &" every time I restart the machine (which is rare anyways).


Step 5) Accessing your Dropbox on the network
Now, one annoying thing with this is that the /c/dropbox/Dropbox isn't really a standard share.  So if you want to access it it will ask you for credentials (admin:12345 if you use the example above).  Which is fine, especially if you are fine with the name of the folder being Dropbox.


So everything is now working.  There is one final bonus step:


Bonus) Changing the Dropbox Directory and making Dropbox a standard Readynas Share.
So this is a cheater step for me.  If you are savvy, you can install a C library, then a Python library and then download a python script to run that will allow you to change the directory to one of the Shares on the readynas (its all here: http://wiki.dropbox.com/TipsAndTricks/TextBasedLinuxInstall)

But I have a cheater way: Modify the fstab and get the /c/dropbox/Dropbox folder to mount as a network share.
- Suppose you want dropbox to be in a share on the Readynas called Business.  SSH into your Readynas (same as above) then follow these steps:
- $ sudo vi /etc/fstab
(Opens the VIM based editor, full list of commands here: http://www.tuxfiles.org/linuxhelp/vimcheat.html)
NOTE: One newbie thing to note with vim is that you will want to hit the "insert key" when ever you want edit a line of the file and hit the ESC key when you want to save or quit.
- Enter the line (use arrow keys to get on a line with a line entry, hit insert, hit enter, and you should have a fresh line): //192.168.x.x/c/dropbox/Dropbox /c/Business cifs default,username=admin,password=12345,workgroup=WORKGROUP 0 0
NOTE: Of course change 12345 and workgroup to your settings.  Capitalization is important.  Check and double check the line, while I didn't brick my computer on this step, it is very possible to do so.
- $ mount -a

If you don't see any errors after you hit mount -a, you should be all good.  If you see some errors, consult the internet and correct.  From now on, your dropbox folder will be replicated in your Business share.  A few more notes:
- Positive: This is easy (way easier than loading a C, python library, and a script).
- Positive: Very reliable and robust (this will work even if you update dropbox, etc)
- Negative: I believe you are making actually two copies on the drives, not the big of a deal for 2gigs of data, but if you have a 50gig dropbox account, than this method probably wont make sense.
- Negative: You are using modest amounts of intranet bandwidth to update the network folder.  I've tweaked this and actually have the readynas connect to the Dropbox folder via the second Ethernet port.  Not sure if this makes a difference, but it does in my mind.

Hope this helps some newbie like me out.  Leave questions in the comments.


Monday, December 20, 2010

Blogging from Google's CR-48...Lucky me

UPS just stopped by a dropped off my free CR-48 laptop running Google's OS.  It was a complete surprise.

So far: I use Chrome as a browser already, so the Chrome OS almost feels like the middle man is taken out.  First impressions:
1) The screen is a bit weak (as other reviews have detailed).
2) Setup is by far the most simply of any OS I have ever experienced.
3) Chrome as a browser works just as well in this OS as my Linux setup.
4) The laptop is light, and rubbery.  Actually a great feel for the way I beat up computers.
5) The clickable track pad is a little annoying, but not as bad as I had expected.  Definitely usable.

Happy Holidays everyone!

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Rush Limbaugh and the Talk Radio Business Model...

I've been back in Minnesota for the last week, and every car I get into had talk radio on. Namely, the 100.3 K-Talk station that plays Rush Limbaugh, as well as Hannity and I can only assume Glenn Beck. Although I hear a lot about the amount of money these guys make, I never really thought about the economics of this.

First off: We in New York and San Francisco don't really listen to talk radio. A lot of us don't have cars or have jobs that are close enough that a long, radio-listening commute isn't necessary. Outside of the coasts, and maybe a few other places, most people drive over an 1-hour each way to work and/or have jobs where they regularly have to drive to clients, etc. Overall, this creates a huge amount of potential listening time. In NY, our commutes, although on average shorter, have the same issue, but whereas our listening time is Podcasts or newspapers (as we can take our eyes off the tracks and read), at least in Minnesota (and most of the country) radio is still the primary medium for work-time commutes.

So, I was speaking to a guy out here in the advertising industry about how radio, when other old mediums like newspapers are struggling, is thriving. Well, actually it's not all radio, its only talk radio. Talk Radio is immensely profitable while music-based radio(think Clear Channel and their competitors) is slowly dieing.

Why the difference? Well, as it turns out, Talk Radio is basically an infomercial style business model. In between the rants, there are few, but significant advertisements that aren't like music-based radio. They are infomercial style, with hosts like Rush Limbaugh or Glenn Beck, actually talking about the product. Or alternatively, commercials with similar sounding advertisements to the actual radio broadcast content. Lets take a look at a few of the ones going on K-Talk:


  • Gold Vantage - Gold Vantage is a bullion and antique gold coin purveyor, similar to the better known Goldline. Their commercial is set up as a mock radio show with an interviewer and expert talking about the advantages of gold. I don't know who the interviewer is, but given that its radio, its tough to tell whether this is a famous person or just an actor. This commercial comes on almost every break that Rush takes.
  • LifeLock: LifeLock is a scam, from what I can tell. Its basically a service to protect against identity theft that the BBB doesn't think works. It takes non-tech people for a ride, while providing no service (their CEO has had his identity stolen multiple times after publishing his social security number).
  • Esteem: This is a earing aid that Rush apparently has and promotes on the radio show. Its him speaking the ad himself.

These methods of sales are very familiar to internet marketing techniques and those most associated with infomercials. Even though for many these seem odd and unassuming, they are very excellent sales methods that have been perfected over 30 years.

Given Talk Radio's focus on a single performer and with their audience creating strong "expert" style credibility, they are able to very successfully market products to their audience. This is a strong advantage over music-based radio, where its performers do not have the credibility and its marketing, I can assume, is much less profitable.

Pair the above with a large, mostly captive audience, you end up with a very profitable industry that will be around for a long time in one form or another.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Missed a couple of months...

Trying real hard to keep this thing updated...but its so tough knowing whats what without the right hand column on the Nomadlife prime blog.

Anyways, the main purpose of this post, as its the only social media outlet I have left these days, is to share and show support for this article: http://www.slate.com/id/2202646 I too hate birthday dinners. They are a waste of money, the check is always annoying, the people you end up seated next to generally suck. Here are some alternatives to inviting everyone out to an expensive dinner or even an expensive bar:
1) Have a party. Everyone brings a bottle or a dish. They are fun and you can hang out with whom you'd like. You have to know someone in your life that has a decent apartment that will be gracious enough to throw a party for you.
2) BBQ: Same as the first. Cheaper, chiller, actually get to hang out with people you like. Lots of parks out there with grills, just add meat and charcoal.
3) Multiple, smaller gatherings: If the above doesn't work, dont get lazy about it. Just have a few different nights with different groups of friends having fun. No need to bring everyone together for an annoying dinner no one wants to be at.

Thats my rant. I almost always throw myself a birthday party at my apartment. Its just easy.

On to other notes:
- Was in Egypt for 2 weeks, met Sara's family, which was great. It was great being back in Egypt, especially to Sinai. What a beautiful place.
- Going to MN for my cousins wedding in late August. Hopefully seeing a Twins game!
- Computer crashed, switched to straight Ubuntu. Been working really well so far. Ubuntu 10.04 is getting close to prime time, with only a few annoyances, which can be solved with perseverance.

That's it for now...namaste (in honor of the Lost Epilogue).

>

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Do you have a good business or product idea?

I discuss business models and ideas all of the time. Its one of my favorite things. However, about 9 out of 10 ideas that someone (or even myself) brings to my attention is obviously flawed. Starting a new business or launching a new product is like playing poker: You got to know when to put your chips in and when to fold.

Here is my 10 point rating system for most business ideas. Give your idea 0 points if its an absolute negative, 1 point if you are unsure either way and 2 points if its a absolute positive.
  1. Is your business or product in a under-served niche (ie not a sexy industry that everyone is trying to get a piece of)?
  2. Do you have deep understanding of the industry or do you have a close relationship to someone that does?
  3. Is the idea easy to execute on (ie can you see clearly how to serve the market and all existing technology exists and is proven)?
  4. Is the market big enough so that you think you can easily sell 1000 units per month at $10 per unit, 10 units per month at $1000 or equivalent in billed hours of service?
  5. Can the business be revenue positive in 6-months?
  6. Can the business be automated or are profits recurring (ie could the business be successful with minimal human resourced or still be successful with minimal oversight by the founders)?
  7. Are there any barriers to entry for your market or possible intellectual property opportunities?
  8. Can you start the business without substantial upfront capital outlays (ie no inventory, etc)?
  9. Can the business stand on its own (ie doesn't need a huge existing customer base, mailing list, big advertising outlays, or additional features to make it an full product)?
  10. Do you have any other secret sauce not covered in the above?
There you have it. Getting a perfect 20 on this would be an ideal business in my opinion (something automated, good / quick revenue production with some cheeky barriers to entry). For reference, our four brands I'd rank as:
  • Hobocans/HoboHookah: 12
  • Constitution: 14
  • Mementum: 13
  • SlangDang: 12
If we were starting out at square one again, Constitution would definitely be the obvious business to start. Its a good revenue producer, but does require a lot of human time and cant really be automated. Hobocans requires lots of capital upfront, but could be a nearly fully automated revenue stream or a pretty good business to sell down the line. Mementum is all about producing little revenue streams, but its a slow starter. SlangDang is all about the secret sauce, and is definitely the most risky out of the bunch in terms of revenue prospects, but hasn't required much capital so far.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Comcast is craptast

So we tried to migrate from comcast residential to comcast business. Things have gone down hill from there. Promised extra features for nearly the same price, we have instead gotten one of our lines irreparably, apparently, disconnected. For over a week we have been down a line, trying to get Comcast to accept money for another line, and they refuse.

Every major service provider has issues with customer service. Its part of the scaling problem in those industries. But at this point, not only can Comcast not get one phone line up but they cant even invoice us (ive been waiting 3 days, just to get billed so that they can start setting up the line).

I've heard bad things about Verizon internet/phone and, hell, we've had our own battles setting up our business cell phone plan, but honestly, Ill forgive a few customer service problems, as long as within one day I can get what I want and am willing to pay for. Comcast, at this point, I feel - is a mammoth with no head, a disorganized game of commercial pick up ball, or maybe a loose confederation of similarly named office buildings trading customer service calls between themselves as a baseless form of currency - that cant even receive money let alone deliver a high quality service.